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The RMB exchange rate is expected to appreciate again at the end of the year. The research team of the Financial Market Department of Agricultural Bank of China said that the market transactions have shown obvious narrative-driven characteristics in recent years. Considering some recent changes, the RMB exchange rate is expected to stabilize and rebound again in the future. First, the pricing of Trump transactions in the international market has come to an end. Second, there has been a major shift in domestic macro policies. Since late September, financial policies such as lowering the RRR, cutting interest rates, supporting the stock market and the real estate market, and fiscal debt measures have boosted market confidence. Third, there has been a favorable change in supply and demand in the domestic foreign exchange market. The end of the year is the traditional peak season for enterprises to settle foreign exchange, and the continuous forward discount will lead to the backlog of foreign exchange settlement, which will further amplify the demand for foreign exchange settlement at the end of the year. Further considering the overall situation of the game between China and the United States, Trump's return not only means the enhancement of external shocks, but also the upgrading of internal policies. The RMB exchange rate will maintain two-way fluctuations next year, and it is no longer a steady profit for enterprises to hold US dollars and postpone foreign exchange settlement. While stabilizing domestic foreign trade and foreign investment, continuing to expand high-level opening-up and expanding domestic demand in an all-round way implies the certainty of economic stabilization and recovery, which is expected to promote the return of short-term securities investment and medium-and long-term direct investment and help the RMB stop falling and rebound.If Trump wants to curb inflation, the first thing to do is to build more houses. If Trump wants to push down inflation in the United States to a more tolerable level, he needs housing costs to help him. In this regard, the influence of the Federal Reserve is limited. It is unclear whether inflation will return to the Fed's 2% target in a sustained and convincing manner, at least not until housing inflation is further eased. In October, the national average rent in the United States was $209 per month, slightly lower than that in September, but still higher than the same period last year by 3.3%. Lisa Studt Vanter, chief economist of Bright MLS, said, "It is expected that with the passage of time, we will start to see the year-on-year rent growth slow down, but it just feels like it will take a long time. Some measures proposed by Trump will lead to rising inflation. Compared with six months ago, the prospect of continuing to move towards 2% is less certain. Aiming at the housing supply problem is something that the federal government can do meaningfully. Of course, this is not something that can be done in the short term. "Han Yong's bribery case of illegally accepting property of more than 261 million yuan was heard in the first instance. On December 12, 2024, the Nanning Intermediate People's Court of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region held a trial in the first instance to hear the bribery case of Han Yong, former deputy director of Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference Population, Resources and Environment Committee and former party secretary and chairman of Shaanxi Provincial Political Consultative Conference. The Nanning Municipal People's Procuratorate sued the accusation: From 1993 to 2023, the defendant Han Yong took advantage of his position as Party Secretary and Procurator-General of Songyuan Municipal People's Procuratorate of Jilin Province, Party Member and Deputy Procurator-General of Jilin Provincial People's Procuratorate, Deputy Secretary of Jilin Provincial Commission for Discipline Inspection, Standing Committee of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Party Committee, Minister and Deputy Secretary of Organization Department, Party Secretary and Chairman of Shaanxi Provincial Political Consultative Conference, and the convenience of his authority and position to help relevant units and individuals in business operation, project contracting and cadre appointment. The procuratorial organ requested Han Yong to be investigated for criminal responsibility for accepting bribes.

Institution: A small interest rate cut by the European Central Bank may have a neutral impact on euro credit. Analysts of Yuxin Bank said in a report that the European Central Bank is expected to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut tonight, which should have a neutral impact on euro-denominated credit. Analysts said that if the central bank cuts interest rates by 50 basis points further, it is unlikely to be beneficial to euro credit, because it will raise concerns about economic growth in the euro zone. According to the data of LSEG Refinitiv, the possibility that the market expects the European Central Bank to cut interest rates by 25 basis points is 83%, while the possibility of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 17%. Yuxin Bank said that as the European Central Bank continues to cut interest rates, the euro credit spread may fluctuate slightly or tighten slightly in the coming months.Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine: We are ready to discuss the deployment of foreign troops in our own territory. On December 12, local time, the reporter of the General Desk learned that Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Stefani Hina said that Ukraine is ready to discuss the deployment of foreign troops in its own territory. It is reported that French President Macron and Polish Prime Minister Tusk plan to exchange views on the deployment of about 40,000 peacekeepers in Uzbekistan on the 12th. (CCTV News)Huaxin Securities: China Unicom's operating income grew steadily and maintained its "buy" rating. Huaxin Securities Research Report pointed out that since the beginning of this year, China Unicom (600050.SH) has seen steady growth in operating income, rapid improvement in profitability, steady expansion of user scale and continuous consolidation of network foundation, laying a more solid foundation for high-quality development of enterprises. Communication and digital intelligence services are driven by two wheels, injecting vitality into the company's performance. Looking forward to the whole year, the company will adhere to the general tone of steady progress, promote the network to be new, technology to be new and service to be new, strive to achieve the performance goal of steady growth of operating income and double-digit growth of profits throughout the year, take greater steps in high-quality development, and accelerate the construction of a world-class science and technology service enterprise with global competitiveness. With the gradual expansion of user scale and the drive of digital transformation, the company will benefit from the continuous improvement of revenue and profit and maintain the "buy" investment rating.

London Metal Exchange (LME): aluminum stocks decreased by 2,500 tons, copper stocks decreased by 75 tons, nickel stocks decreased by 2,862 tons, lead stocks decreased by 2,250 tons, tin stocks were flat, and zinc stocks decreased by 1,300 tons.Lou Feipeng, a researcher at the Postal Savings Bank: The full implementation of the personal pension system is just the right time for financial institutions to usher in development opportunities. "The full implementation of the personal pension system is just the right time." Lou Feipeng, a researcher at China Postal Savings Bank, said that in the past two years, the personal pension system has achieved remarkable results in general, with a rapid increase in the number of accounts opened and a rapid enrichment of financial products. The data shows that at the end of June 2024, the number of individual pension accounts opened exceeded 60 million. "The implementation of the personal pension system in the pioneering urban areas has enabled the residents to have a more intuitive understanding of the personal pension system. At the same time, it has accumulated rich experience for government departments and financial departments to improve the personal pension system and optimize personal pension financial services. " Yan Feipeng said. (SSE)Treasury futures turned green for 30 years, and treasury futures turned down. The 30-year main contracts turned green and fell by 0.03% to 116.94. The 10-year main contract was reported at 108.17, and the increase narrowed to 0.02%.